The Deadly Price of Impunity

I have spent a lot of time thinking about this specifically after playing an active role in the movement for Tigrayan freedom for over 5 years, and a multitude of other horrors that have also unfolded in the world since. Particularly because the genocide that my people have endured at the hands of Ethiopian and Eritrean forces has made me feel the suffering of other victims of human rights abuses so deeply and viscerally and in ways I never thought possible.

But the deep sympathies also gave way to the most basic analysis of the world that so many of these conflicts are connected and that they are so often worsened by the lack of accountability being placed on the offending regimes and leaders.

Let’s start with my flesh and blood, the Tigray Genocide, that was planned and executed by megalomaniac zealot Abiy Ahmed who came to power and proceeded to destroy the establishment coalition of EPRDF that was the most economically transformative political movement in generations in order to replace it with his authoritarian Prosperity Party (PP). In the backdrop of all of this he was carefully planning to exterminate the people of Tigray and coordinating with Isaias Afwerki (brutal dictator leading Eritrea), after 14 documented meetings Afwerki let out the infamous ‘game over’ as in game over for TPLF run Tigray. Their respective forces invaded the regional state followed by a deadly blockade of everything needed to sustain life and a long list of atrocities from air strikes, shootings, torture, mass detention the rape and sexual abuse of hundreds of thousands of women and girls and of course the ethnic cleansing of Western Tigray. Some estimates show that at least 800,000 human beings were killed which I fear is a gross undercount.

So what happened to the leader that is responsible for all of this death and destruction?  His Noble Peace Prize was never revoked and he continues to be celebrated throughout the world so much so that the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) in the UN gave him the Agricola Medal for his leadership in food security, wheat self-sufficiency initiatives, and rural economic development in 2024. A sick joke when you consider how transparent he was about starving Tigray. He was embraced and heralded not only by the West, but many states in the Arab league, Africa and Asia.

Which makes it clear that in the global world order it has always been about legitimacy not morality. Ethiopia in particular has a great deal of standing in the world, with its history (particularly as an ancient Christian empire with some settler colonial origins), its long security alliance with the United States, and the mythology around being the only African country that defeated its would be colonizer. Square that with the caricature of the Tigray Rebel’s violently seizing power from the empire that once dominated them, which is part of why the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was on the U.S terrorist watch list for years. So when the genocide began so much of the world took Abiy Ahmed at his word despite an ocean of evidence to the contrary.

Tragically, emboldened after getting away with the Tigray genocide and the destabilization of the rest of the country, he proceeded to involve Ethiopia in the crisis in Sudan by bolstering up the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) a paramilitary group responsible for the war and genocide in the country. Investigative reporting by Reuters even found that Ethiopia built them a secret training camp in the western Benishangul-Gumuz region and Sudan’s foreign ministry claimed that drones launched from Ethiopia have been striking locations inside Sudan. Its officials also believe that Ethiopia is emerging as an important new vessel for supplies to the RSF and is also allowing them move soldiers throughout Ethiopian territory.

The mad man’s impunity would be difficult to enjoy without the alliance with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), who financed the camp, was a fierce supporter of the PM’s administration since it begun in 2018 and of course played a role in the Tigray catastrophe by arming Ethiopia and demolishing Tigray’s defensive weaponry at the start of the conflict.

Which begs the question how did the UAE become the wealthy powerhouse turned major player in so many geopolitical conflicts? It all began with when oil and gas was discovered in the 1950s and 60s, which gave them opportunities to diversify, grow and strengthen their economy which includes a vast gold industry. Interestingly enough, there are no gold mines on their territory, it all comes from theft and exploitation of countries like Sudan which is the sole reason they continue to fund the RSF in the hopes that they will wreak havoc on the land and ultimately keep the spoils. But now that they own the Abiy Ahmed administration in Ethiopia and have participated in at least two genocides their appetite for wealth, power and domination is only growing.

The mass death and suffering they have unleashed, particularly near the Horn of Africa, will likely be a debt unpaid for the Emiratis because like most perpetrators they are protected by the strategic alliances it holds, from its economic partnerships with China and Russia to its security pacts with the United States and much of Europe. The same people who rightfully criticized China for its treatment of the Uyghurs are happy to do business with and vacation on the blood soaked streets of the UAE. Because the Emiratis can offer the West something that’s worth so much more than enforcing international law.

But beyond the ethics or morals of these individual nation states, impunity is also born from how notoriously difficult it is to prevent genocides or even to enforce international law. In addition to institutions like the UN, ICJ and ICC, tasking the U.S, as the world hegemon, to police the rest of the world has been an abject failure. After all America has caused a fair share of destruction from the wars in Vietnam and Iraq, starving and killing hundreds of millions through sanctions, and of course the countless regime change schemes that have destroyed countries like Chile, Guatemala, Venezuela, Iran, the Congo etc, according to Lindsey A. O’Rourke in ‘Covert Regime Change’. And now its imperialism has reached a new, grotesquely naked stage with the Trump administration openly deposing governments, kidnapping heads of state, killing civilians and attempting to steal oil. And as shocking as these moves may seem, not enough Americans are realizing that this is who we’ve always been. Its hard for some to wrap their minds around until imperialism boomerangs its way back to us by way of authoritarianism and fascism.

What’s more is that America’s impunity for its crimes post WWII cannot be penetrated militarily, but perhaps economically, if China starts to effectively challenge American dominance through economic strides and developing partnerships with other economies across the world or even get to a place where they could use it as leverage, America may start to shift and adapt (as we may not have a choice).

It’s also an absolute necessity to transform the big three institutions (UN, ICC, ICJ) to make them more just, equitable and effective. As of right now the ICC and ICJ refuse to bring a case against Abiy Ahmed despite the fact that everyone knows he has committed the crime of all crimes—-genocide. Because the Western imperial forces that brought him to power will not have it. We cannot continue to allow a system that allows the hegemon and its allies to look the other way when an ally commits crimes and respond with disproportionate force when its enemies are the ones accused.

We have to believe that a better world is possible, one without hunger, exploitation, climate catastrophe, war and genocide. And that can only be within reach if we transform systems, enfranchise the less powerful and hold the monsters of the world accountable.